- Facets of the North Korea Conflict
- North Korean Succession and the Risks of Instability
- 1994-2001: Clinton Tries for a Deal
- Kim Trump summit: North Korean leader talks up denuclearisation - BBC News
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Pyongyang followed with vehement protests and its first nuclear test in Xi notably visited South Korea for his first trip to the Korean Peninsula as president, and has yet to meet with Kim Jong-un. The two states maintain only minimal contact through routine bureaucratic exchanges and formal letters. Furthermore, China implied recently that it will not come to the defense of North Korea if it launches a unilateral attack on the United States, as reflected in a Global Times editorial published in August High-profile scholars like Shen Zhihua, Zhu Feng, and Jia Qingguo have begun calling on their government to rethink its long-standing policy toward North Korea.
Not everyone, however, is calling for a major shift in policy. While most observers have no sympathy for Pyongyang, some believe Beijing should continue to take a moderate approach on North Korea to prevent Pyongyang from turning its nuclear weapons on China.
Facets of the North Korea Conflict
Finally, there are a shrinking number of people who still believe that the historical ties between China and North Korea should not be forgotten and that Beijing should stand by its communist ally. The most important question, however, is where Xi will position himself in this ongoing debate.
To ensure Xi chooses the former approach, smart diplomacy by the Trump administration is necessary. US leaders should, therefore, both raise the credibility of US military action in North Korea, while continuing to urge Beijing that its unrestrained participation in the pressure campaign is the only hope for a diplomatic path to denuclearize North Korea. The Trump administration should instead issue firm and unambiguous statements on what kinds of limited military responses Pyongyang should expect to see if it conducts a missile test, a nuclear test, or if it attacks South Korean, Japanese, or US territory.
Such controlled declarations could be useful for communicating to Pyongyang, Beijing, and American allies that the United States has a purposeful plan of military action in place—that it will not escalate unnecessarily, for instance, over a war of words between the American and North Korean leaders, but that it will indeed take action when North Korea engages in provocations. The Trump administration should match these warnings with a continued increase in the presence of US military assets and exercises in the region to demonstrate US capabilities and readiness to engage in any military action.
Second, the Trump administration should continue to stress to Chinese leaders that until Kim feels he must make a choice between nuclear weapons and regime survival, he has no reason to give up his nuclear weapons. President Trump should take care not to show satisfaction with nominal measures by Beijing. Furthermore, as I have argued elsewhere, the two states, along with South Korea, Japan, and Russia, must engage in serious conversations about a mutually acceptable framework for the Korean Peninsula in case the North Korean regime collapses as an unintended result of the pressure campaign.
Probably not. Any deal to alter current arrangement will either be agreed between the U. With it would go any remaining rationale for Japan-Korean cooperation. That would be a misreading. It was only the coming of the first Cold War and the requirements of America's geopolitical strategy that brought them together in the first place. The rise of China and the looming possibility of a new Cold War changes all that permanently. The first Cold War was strongly ideological and it seemed natural for countries with similar economic systems -- capitalist or communist -- to line up on opposite sides.
In historical terms, though, that was an aberration. In previous centuries, geography and national interest were the driving forces, not economic principles, and this is likely to be the case again. In the grand wrestling match between the U. South Korea would prefer to hedge its bets but as time goes on, that will become increasingly difficult. If forced, it is likely to choose China. Sign up to our newsletters to get our best stories delivered straight to your inbox. Stay ahead with our exclusives on Asia ; the most dynamic market in the world.
Stay ahead with our exclusives on Asia. Get trusted insights from experts within Asia itself. Arrow Artboard Created with Sketch. Artboard Created with Sketch. Opinion Japan drags business into politics with South Korea sanctions The Tokyo-Seoul relationship stands to deteriorate further. Peter Tasker.
However, the system is not sustainable forever, and it is difficult to imagine a gradual transformation and peaceful integration with South Korea. Meanwhile, reinforcing the status quo will not bring prosperity, only more backwardness and oppression for millions of North Koreans. These early-warning publications identify major conflict situations in which prompt action, driven or supported by the European Union and its member states, would generate stronger prospects for peace. In Gaza, as in , Hamas and Israel appear close to a conflagration that neither party desires.
After an escalation on 26 March, the UN and Egypt have worked to guide the parties back to the ceasefire concluded indirectly in November. On 30 March, the one-year anniversary of the Great March of Return, Israeli soldiers killed four Palestinians and wounded others near the line separating Israel from Gaza. Since then, calm seems to have returned. Even if the truce holds, however, another forthcoming anniversary looms. On 15 May, Palestinians commemorate al-Nakba, the catastrophe that befell them with the establishment of the State of Israel, which could be a flashpoint of disruption.
So, too, could tensions elsewhere. Shuttered by Israel in , it was forcibly reopened in February by Palestinians who turned it into a prayer hall. Israel seeks to reverse the change, risking a major escalation with Jordan, which manages the area through the Islamic waqf. On 25 March, a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip landed in Mishmeret, north of Tel Aviv, destroying a family house and wounding seven Israelis, including a twelve-year-old girl and two infants. Hamas said it had launched the 25 March rocket in error, but few in Israel believed this claim.
In that agreement, Hamas committed to end rocket fire into Israel and promised to restrain the intensity of the ongoing protests.
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This was to be followed by secondary and tertiary phases once the risk of war had passed. While Israel has allowed the passage of Qatari fuel and funds, and Hamas has demonstrated its capacity to restrain protests undertaken as part of the Great March of Return, Israel has shown little willingness to take further steps beyond the initial ceasefire agreement.
Recommitment to the indirect ceasefire agreement that followed the last escalation at the end of March succeeded in calming the situation in Gaza ahead of the Israeli elections. In February, Palestinians forcibly regained access to the site, which Israel closed in , turning it into a prayer hall.
North Korean Succession and the Risks of Instability
Israel seeks to close the building once more. It is important to rapidly resolve this crisis because minor incidents at the esplanade have previously triggered major escalations, especially at times of relative volatility in Gaza and the West Bank. Moreover, if the incoming Israeli government formulates its strategy while a crisis is festering at the site, it might decide to further erode the historical Status Quo at the site, which is necessary for stability because it is a framework for managing the site that all parties have stated they are committed to upholding.
Israel and Jordan have negotiated an agreement over the building: to close it for repairs and then reopen it for daily use.
1994-2001: Clinton Tries for a Deal
Israel also committed not to carry out an Israeli court order to forcibly close the site until the 9 April elections. The parties continue to negotiate, hoping to reach a mutually acceptable solution. Worse, the recently expanded Islamic waqf , which runs the esplanade under Jordanian auspices and became more representative of Palestinian Jerusalemite views following a reshuffle in February, has been effectively excluded from the negotiations.
Its exclusion bodes ill for Palestinian Jerusalemite support of any agreement reached. The EU and members of the international community should take immediate steps to alleviate the economic strain on Gaza. European aid to the Gaza Strip must take the form of long-term support, for instance through infrastructure funds, as well as immediate measures that could meet short-term demands.
Key for the latter is the need to address the shortage of medical supplies that are allowed into the Gaza Strip.
Kim Trump summit: North Korean leader talks up denuclearisation - BBC News
Israel and Hamas drew up the blueprint for the required measures in the November ceasefire agreement, but have yet to put them into practice. Israel should take these steps assuming that Hamas holds up its end of the bargain: no rocket attacks into Israel, and a reduction in intensity of protests near the fence that marks the boundary between the Gaza Strip and Israel.
Alongside these measures, the EU and member states should try to persuade the Palestinian Authority PA to drop its policies of sanctioning the Gaza Strip with the intent of undermining Hamas. These policies have included steps to cut the salaries of civil servants and pensioners most of those affected are not affiliated with Hamas, but the salaries of Fatah and other PA employees are critical to keeping the Gaza economy afloat. The EU could, for example, threaten to withdraw funding from various EU-funded initiatives in the West Bank if such measures by the PA are not reversed.
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Hamas has indicated willingness to allow legislative elections in Gaza at the same time as in the West Bank as long as the PA agrees to stage a presidential election in both territories as well. The EU should encourage the PA to announce its willingness to also carry out presidential elections, as well as call on both parties to allow for free campaigning in their respective territories.
In terms of the tense standoff in Jerusalem , Jordan should include the recently expanded Islamic waqf in its negotiations with Israel over the building. Following overdue repairs, Israel should remove all obstacles to the waqf in designating the building as it sees fit, including as a waqf -operated Islamic educational institute or as a prayer space. Doing so would lower the risk of future violence. The EU should therefore limit its role to publicly calling upon the parties to respect the Status Quo at the Holy Esplanade and to reaffirming the historical and religious connections of both sides to the site.
Rising violent crime rates remain the greatest threat to public security and stability in Mexico. Over the past twelve years, large criminal syndicates have fragmented into smaller groups, sparking a plethora of lethal, region-specific armed conflicts. But homicide rates in are on track to surpass the record levels of previous years, peaking in states such as Guanajuato and Jalisco.
The tide of killings is partly due to the breakdown of cartels into approximately smaller armed groups, which has generated competition among those groups and undercut the ability of crime bosses to enforce discipline. At the same time, the Mexican state, and its security services in particular, continue to suffer from corruption, collusion with illegal actors or even criminal capture of local police forces.
Offensives against specific criminal targets have succeeded on their own terms: more than have been arrested or killed over the past twelve years and many larger criminal structures fractured as a result. But insecurity remains rampant. Similar patterns are evident elsewhere: with neither the state nor any single criminal actor dominant enough to impose order, smaller groups have become locked in conflict over patches of markets, territories, and populations.
The result is an expanding patchwork of region-specific armed conflicts. The toll on civilians is high, with ordinary citizens caught up in the crossfire, families of criminals targeted and internal displacement on the rise. Violence is exacerbated by cycles of personal revenge, for instance in the mountains of Guerrero, where blood feuds, involving killings and forced disappearances, can stretch on for decades.
Criminal groups exploit entrenched networks of corruption to collude with state officials, with public institutions becoming participants in criminal conflicts. In some regions, these groups bribe security forces to act against their rivals and overlook their own crimes.
Exactly how the government will work to stop abusive conduct in the security forces and dismantle criminal structures within them is unclear. Ending enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings, which have been documented by the UN High Commission on Human Rights and others, should be a priority. Exposing those most responsible for criminal misconduct in the security services requires finding ways of protecting lower-ranking officers forced into criminal activity by their commanders. As the government establishes the National Guard it should ensure adequate training for new officers and enforce internal rules through the establishment of independent civilian oversight with teeth, potentially in the shape of ombudspersons with disciplinary powers, acting in close coordination with prosecutorial task forces dedicated to investigating wrongdoing by the security forces.
Earlier security policies, such as the military offensive against organised crime initiated in and the creation of a new Federal Police in , have emphasised grand, top-down solutions.
But tackling localised violence requires a regionally tailored approach. Given fiscal constraints on the Mexican state and flawed federal institutions, targeted support for promising local security and justice reforms and peacebuilding initiatives offers an alternative.
Such local initiatives include, for example, recent efforts to reconstruct police forces in municipalities such as Xalapa in Veracruz, where police have worked closely with independent security experts but are unable to confront rising criminal violence on their own. The government should also strengthen initiatives, such as those led by community organisations, to mediate among feuding armed groups and clans to interrupt cycles of revenge killing.